The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its December 2025 Economic Outlook, maintaining Chile’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2.4%. This projection remains unchanged from the June outlook. However, the OECD has revised its 2026 forecast downward to 2.2%, a decrease from the previous estimate of 2.4%.
The report highlights upward revisions in several components of Chile’s economic performance for 2025. Private consumption is now expected to grow by 2.7%, up from the earlier forecast of 2.3%. Investment, measured as gross fixed capital formation, has been raised significantly from 2.2% to 6.8%. Domestic demand is also projected to rise more strongly, increasing from a prior estimate of 2.6% to 4.9%.
In terms of trade, the OECD expects exports to end this year with a growth rate of 3.5%, while imports are anticipated to expand by 11.3%. The previous projections had put export growth at 7.1% and import growth at 8.2%. The lower export figures are attributed to reduced mining output caused by ongoing investment projects at major deposits, which have simultaneously increased imports of machinery and equipment.
Looking ahead to 2026, although overall GDP growth is revised down slightly, key demand indicators have been upgraded: private consumption is now forecast at 1.7% (up from 1.5%), investment at 5.1% (up from 2.7%), and domestic demand at 2.6% (up from 2.1%). Export growth for next year is projected at 1.3%, with imports expected to increase by 2.4%.
According to the OECD report, “the revival of the investment pipeline—particularly in mining, energy, and related capital goods—will support growth. Exports are projected to contribute moderately, with export growth recovering in 2026 and 2027, while import growth is expected to slow sharply.”
Regarding recent economic developments, the OECD notes that “real GDP grew 1.6% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by domestic demand, which expanded 5.8% year-on-year.” The report adds that investment was boosted by machinery and equipment purchases and that private consumption benefited from strong real wage increases: “Consumer and business confidence remain relatively high, and financing conditions have recently eased.” Headline inflation fell to within the Central Bank’s target range at “3.4% in October.”
On fiscal matters, the OECD acknowledges government efforts toward budgetary discipline: “The Government has outlined a fiscal consolidation plan for 2025–27 (…) and a sustained consolidation of around 1% of GDP is expected over the period, through a balanced combination of moderate growth in current spending—mainly administrative and non-social—and increased fiscal revenues resulting from tax-base-broadening measures and strengthened anti-evasion enforcement.” The organization cautions that “full compliance with the fiscal rule will require firm implementation of spending restraint and revenue-enhancing measures.”
The report also references new policy initiatives such as the Framework Law on Sectoral Permits: this law aims to streamline procedures across sectors by reducing costs as well as processing times without lowering regulatory standards; it further notes Chile’s progress in Digital Government services.
Finance Minister Nicolás Grau commented on these reforms: “One aspect that is particularly important because it reflects the long-term growth capacity we are passing on to the country and to the next administration is the OECD’s emphasis on the approval of the Framework Law on Sectoral Permits. This law will allow us to reduce processing times without lowering regulatory standards. Overall, these are positive signals that reflect the country’s macro-fiscal discipline while strengthening its long-term growth capacity.”
Internationally, improved terms of trade for Chile have resulted mainly from stronger global copper demand and easing geopolitical tensions leading to lower oil prices; U.S.-imposed tariffs announced by President Donald Trump should have limited impact due to exemptions for copper and timber exports from Chile.
Finally, membership in agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may help boost Chilean exports if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate further.
“Chile’s membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and relatively low effective U.S tariff rates could bolster export growth to other markets if trade tensions in United States intensify,” concludes the OECD report.
